Oops. Banks find $50bn of Investor mortgages under the carpet

November 5, 2015 admin Australian Housing, Banking Regulation 101

Australia’s investor led housing bubble could be worst that first thought.

The Reserve Bank deputy governor, Dr Philip Lowe, today revealed the central bank has been concerned about the banks significant upwards revision on investor mortgages.

Reviews over the past 6 months has found $50 billion in investor mortgages incorrectly classified as the banking regulator implements a 10 percent speed limit on growth of investor mortgages.

The ten percent increase revises upwards the portion of investor loans to 40 per cent, from the 35 per cent originally reported.

Dr Lowe said, “As lenders have looked more closely, what they have found has surprised and, to some extent, concerned us,”

The revelations today come as Barclays indicate Australia’s house prices are 22 per cent overvalued and will experience a “long period of broad stagnation.”

» Australian banks understated the value of investor loans by $50 billion: RBA – The ABC, 5th November 2015.
» RBA ‘surprised’ by banks’ $50b home loan error
» House prices set for long period of ‘stagnation’: Barclays – The Sydney Morning Herald, 5th November 2015.




101 Comments

  1. > “As lenders have looked more closely, what they have found has surprised (…) us,”

    Aah – that reminds of that good one…

    Little Johnny goes out in the country with his parents for the first time. As the adults are out on the verandah yak-yaking away, the young one comes in running and shouting: “Mommy, mommy mommy…”
    Mom: “what happened, Johnny?”
    Johnny: “Mommy, mommy – the black bull f*cked the white cow!”

    Now, mom, slightly taken aback by the blue language, pulls little Johnny to her side and says quietly:

    Mom: “Listen son, we don’t use that kind of language, not here, not anywhere… if you need to say that the black bull ‘surprised’ the white cow’.. got it? now off you go…’

    A little later – here’s little Johnny coming hollering again “Mommy mommy mommy…”
    Mom: “Oh, what happened now son?”
    Johnny: Ah …. Well… the black bull… err… surprised the white cow…

    To which grandad quips from his corner:
    Grandad: “Ah yea? what did he do, me boy?”
    Johnny: “He fu*cked the brown one!”

    So… Seems to me that the Lenders have surprised the RBA indeed…

  6. @4

    When you get to create cash and income via the FIAT system, you don’t need much intelligence to get by. That said, not many people could run a bank with thousands of staff and logistics.

    But as for the muppets at counters and loan officers, anything goes.

    I suggest this is just the tip of the iceberg.

  8. We probably need to follow up the investigation, to which accountability needs to be demonstrated.

  9. The real news is that 40% of bank liar loans are to investors and the real figure is probably closer to 50%. So that means almost half of the loan holders will walk when their properties go under water with no chance of recovery. Long daisy chains of properties all financed against each other will demolish bank equity and make it impossible for them to borrow from overseas banks. Not to worry the bankers Prime Minister will raise taxes to cover it.

  10. “the bankers Prime Minister” – yea, I really don’t trust Turnbull to work in the interest of the people. Just the thought of his priorities gives me the chills 🙁 Why should the next generations have to pay for baby boomer mistakes?!

  11. Hello Dr Philip Lowe, are you telling us the banks are liars? Surely not? They wouldn’t tell lies on low doc mortgage applications either would they? Oh wait….

  13. The fourth name from the bottom of the Goldman Sachs list is the reason we will NOT have a Financial Transaction Tax in Australia instead of a crippling GST increase. The reverse Robin Hood system of stealing from the poor to give to the rich will only get worse as unemployment grows and honest working people lose their homes. The enormous housing loan risks being taken by the big 4 banks are just a part of our casino economy in which they can never lose.

  14. Careful In Vino, Titty will be telling us at any moment that the poor and honest working people need to “suck it up”.

    Fortunately, the downturn is happening now and any mention of a rise in GST will sink the party that proposes it. The Liberals are just testing the waters while Turnbull’s approval rating is high. If they persist, the unelectable Shorten will be our next PM.

    Remember all the rage directed at the Democrats when Meg Lees allow the GST to pass. It decimated the Democrats. They have now been deregistered as a political party.

  15. Yes David C you are right the liberals are testing the waters and Mr Turnbull realises he may only have until the next election to initiate his pro banking agenda. Carbon Trading will be the big one at the end of this year followed by company tax reduction. I expect when TSHTF in the property market any sitting party will be ousted. So whatever happens Australia will be a much better place for The Have Yachts rather than The Have Nots.

  18. Bankers control the media government education churches corporations legal system and military. What we have is de facto Communism. Homosexuality is promoted to school children. Mention of God is prohibited.

  19. The question is Titty, will you have suck it up? Or are you going to lord it over everyone about how smart and good looking you are?

  20. The regulators aren’t surprised they’re just pretending that they are, much like Greenspan did when things went bad in 2008. They know that speculators only make money when markets are moving up or down and the bigger the swings the more is to be made. Thus booms and busts must be stoked.

    It’s a rigged game. You only have to look at the fact that Goldman Sachs were shorting other companies while a ban on shorting them was in place. Or that naked CDSs (in the US) were payed out by the tax payers.

  21. @ anyone having a go at titty..

    Enough guys and gals. So far I’ve really liked this site cause everyone unless really out of line can speak their minds. The guy is entitled to his opinion and we are entitled to a response. Let’s leave it there and move on. I write what I want knowing it ain’t gonna become personal, can we keep it that way.

    Also thx to Admin for all efforts involved so far.

  23. @ 56andoverit

    And so the worldwide push by banks for control of individual freedoms marches on with the start of the abolition of cash in European countries.
    The obvious advantages for them are you can never have a bank run again and all your currency will belong to them. Every transaction can incur a charge and if you really upset them your ability to spend can be instantly terminated. It sound like a horrific sci-fi movie but the reality is already here.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-11-08/war-cash-advancing-all-fronts-first-they-came-pennies

  24. @TC

    Agreed, at these lofty prices, there is no meaningful stagnation. Once we have a few quarterly reports of price drops, >1million -ve geared investors will try to simultaneously pull the plug.

  25. @TC

    Too true. Can’t believe the euphemisms being used in mainstream media to paint a rosier picture than things actually are…

    softening / stagnation = prices falling
    Sydney’s strong employment market = people are loosing their jobs left right & centre.

    Personally I sold my house back in April. One a few doors up from that house sold on Saturday for $300K less than I sold for (both are comparable houses)…I wouldn’t call that price softening or stagnation, I’d call that a price fall.

  26. What other reported figures are under reported? How about the weekly auction clearance rates?
    We all know that the numbers reported are missing a large number of unreported non-sales

    Does anyone calculates a weekly figure for:
    Sales achieved(reported)/Auctions Listed

    This would be a more representative number as all sales achieved would be reported (a high %) but only some of the failed auctions are reported.

  27. @ comment 21
    Well said Patrick, and you’ll have to excuse Davith Cuckold, as its economic theories got a bit of a pounding in the “Foreign Chinese priced out of Sydney property boom” topic and it still seems to be smarting from that.

  28. The job carnage in Australia continues (Banks to cut 1,475 jobs).

    Anyone who believes that Australia’s unemployment rate is just over 6% is a muppet, and needs their head read.

    Our new bankers PM better start producing the goods (the honeymoon can’t last forever), or the electorate will just see the government as “the same horse, different jockey”.

    http://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/big-banks-cut-1475-jobs-to-maintain-profits-20151109-gku69i.html

  29. When i trade forex often i am trading downwards pressure on any kind of market causes fractures and this is where the gains are made with smart money. You sold 300k more than a similar home. You are now 300k richer regardless how much of that went back to the bank because that 300k negative return is now the banks debt. Once the maket is flooded with homes loosing equity and going negative you will now have a 300k buffer plus the interest you haven’t had to pay back to the bank during this time period.

    I believe greed gets the better of people with forex just the same as it will with homes people always want to trade up they see equity as being untouchable and at the very least they belive it will never crunch into their capital and forget about the large amount of accumulated interest they have paid back the bank to for their digital digit fortunes. The banks truly control society.

  30. Titty brought it on herself….’toughen up princess’. Don’t need to be told how to respond. She replied to everyone’s opinion as if she runs this site….seriously go away you fool.

  31. @Tony, “people are loosing their jobs left right & centre.”
    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-08/aussie-banks-on-record-profit-run-not-immune-to-global-job-cuts
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/energy/energyaustralia-to-shut-melbourne-call-centre-300-job-losses-on-manila-shift-20151106-gksb11.html
    http://www.perthnow.com.au/news/western-australia/fiona-stanley-royal-perth-and-fremantle-hospitals-hardest-hit-in-staff-cuts/news-story/682d83ab8cdf2f2aaed5a04d3ae0fc94
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-11-06/up-to-200-job-cuts-flagged-for-prime-minister-and-cabinet/6919882
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/20000-workers-face-job-losses-in-disability-wage-claim-20151015-gk9uck.html
    Other:
    https://www.challengergray.com/press/press-releases/2015-october-job-cut-report-50504-cuts-over-13k-due-oil
    http://www.starrfmonline.com/1.8429850

  32. Oh no the property market increased in value. Everyone who does not own property lets complain that the property market will crash! The APRA decision was a political one not a market risk based decision.

  33. comment 30 @Me, if you dont like other opinions, there’s always the door, Disney or the Lemon Party sites for you. You dont give orders here so unfortunately I’ll be staying. Anyone else wanna have a cry and dump like a girl? Harden up darling.

  34. Me, please stop clogging up the forum with your snide remarks, this is supposed to be an adult forum, but you are bringing it down.

  35. @Jas2u

    Wow,

    Kinda confirms what I’ve seen anecdotally with friends, colleagues, partner, etc.

    Case in point, I work for a govt dept which is shedding 20% of staff next year (this same dept was hiring during the GFC) & my partner (in private enterprise) has just been made redundant. Lots of shop fronts in western Sydney area that I work I notice are closing their doors too.

    As an aside, I just heard today that a prominent Western Sydney R/E agent didn’t have so much as one person inspect 80% of their sales open for inspections this Sat just past.

  38. In Vino put it quite well but I’ll just make it a bit clearer.

    For the wealthy like Turnbull, they will still own property that is desirable and that will be worth much more than something in the burbs. No doubt they will also have cash and liquid assets (probably in some offshore tax shelter) that they can use to get them through the tough times.

    For the average Joe the stakes are much higher. They could be chucked out of their home, have no job and be living on the streets.

    But they should just suck it up… make no complaints,… take it like it is.

    …Henry George, by contrast, showed that the wealth gap occurs because a few people are allowed to monopolize natural opportunities and deny them to others. If we deprived social elites of those monopolies, the whole facade of their greater “fitness” would come tumbling down. George did not advocate equality of income, the forcible redistribution of wealth, or government management of the economy. He simply believed that in a society not burdened by the demands of a privileged elite a full and satisfying life would be attainable by everyone.

    When property prices look like turning down the rent seekers and speculators don’t suck it up, they whine incessantly like spoiled brats. Complaining that interest rates are too high, insisting that home owner grants should be reintroduced and that foreign investment rules should be relaxed.

    And just because we all want to sit back, relax and take life easy doesn’t mean that making someone else work to keep us in that lifestyle should be acceptable. If you build up capital through your own endeavors and invest that in productive businesses then there is no reason for you not to retire. If you think employing people to mow lawns and fix the occasional leaking tap is a productive and worthwhile business then you really don’t know what the word productive means.

    There should be some simple choices. Either work hard to increase your material wealth, or take life easy and be satisfied with your limited means. Don’t expect someone else to have to work hard to increase your wealth while you sit on your lazy arse.

    Are unemployed people lazy? Are rent seekers lazy? If you answered yes to the first and no to the second, I’d like to hear your justification. In any case why should we pillory one group (a group that actually gets very little in the scheme of things) and accept the other. Which group has the sense of entitlement?

    If you think that your opinion is above criticism and complain when someone criticizes it or points out how silly it is or the contradictions in it, maybe you should not be commenting.

  39. David C. You are on the right track that explains why most middle aged Australians are dying of despair. The true hell on earth is the lack of MEANINGFUL work. Without it humans are devoid of purpose, pride, meaning, community and positive social roles.
    Humans draw meaning from producing, not consuming and from belonging to a group that adds positively to their environment.
    Welfare is institutionalised serfdom which strips the recipient of all pride and identity. Hence the wealthy elite who live from the productive work of others lack fulfilment and eventually need therapists to explain their misery.
    The future always belongs to those who are prepared to work for it.

  40. @32 what? APRA move political and not due to risk? no and the RBA for a long time constantly worried and warning about these risks. Only thing left to do is enforce rules because the dumb public will do what the dumb public does.

  44. @Tony. Me too working for govt. Working conditions getting tightened from a year or so. Sitting home on forced annual leave without asking for it. Was trying to jump in SAP BW/HANA, seems impossible, too late, no hope left. On the other side, msm media-believing fools are still speculationg. Amazing times! All i can confirm atm is 60% more ‘For Sale’ in outer west of Sydney within last 90 days. Most are advertised: ‘over xxx.xxx” bullshit or else, very less auctions now. Certain indicators suggest global slowdown of gfc levels is upon us.

  47. I attended 2 auctions in Sydney yesterday. Unsurprisingly both were passed in.

    What did surprise me was that only one was listed in the Domain Sydney auction results despite the one that was omitted from the results having a listing with Domain???

    The absence of this information skews statistics with higher sales results than actually occurs.

    Anyone else have similar observations?

  49. It’s a weird world. Neighbour put his house up, didn’t last 2 weeks here in Adelaide..Wow. The market is a wonder that no-one will ever understand (thank god, look at it’s abuse already).

  50. @46 Matty I don’t understand. Shippers have an over-capacity crises and their answer is to **cancel** scheduled ships, reduce staff and tighten growth? An over-capacity crisis sounds like an expansion problem, there’s more demand for their service than they’re setup for right now. But what’s being described with job cuts is a contraction problem, they can’t afford to grow the company.

    Is it because the price of shipping to too low they can’t pay staff? If so, why is the high demand not causing a price rise?

  51. @50

    I think you’ve mistaken over capacity for over loaded. In short they have too many spare container spots on ships. Hence the cutting of voyagers. The reduction of new vessel purchases maybe from the massive amounts of ships built over the last 10 years.

    They were built in the belief that the boom times of 2004 was coming back…..

    Except it isn’t.

    With most advanced economies talking of war (again)….. You have to wonder what the central banks have in store.

    War sends currency off shore, effectively making the country poorer…. More QE to come????

  52. @ Matty

    When everyone realises that All Wars Are Bankers Wars we will have the solution to stopping these continuous conflicts. By funding both sides in war they encourage uncontrolled spending on armament which creates enormous debts and subsequent profits for them. After millions of people are killed and countries destroyed you have to rebuild with more bank loans and debt which must be paid with taxation. Hence the never ending cycle which has plagued humanity for centuries continues to enslave us.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SKnF1HEUwuo

  54. @ comment 54. One place selling for 12% less than another comparable doesn’t mean much , it happens all the time. And there could be reasons for that difference you dont know about. Look for long term trends over at least 2 quarters if you want to get excited about your anticipated price drops.

  55. OZ lives on false propaganda now. If you don’t go along with the artificial reality, you can lose everything you worked for all your life. You can lose your future.

  56. I agree Titty.
    Out here in Perth it is starting to mirror the pilbara with consecutive quarters (multiple) of falling prices and over-supply.
    I remember reading a property article in January saying that Karratha was one of the most affordable housing markets, asking prices over the last year are down by a third in the last year in Karratha.
    The same can be said with any mining region regardless of falling interest rates, once Perth, Adelaide and Brisbane follow good luck with Sydney and Melbourne in a bankrupt country loading up on more debt.
    Leveraging more offshore debt while our country’s income has disappeared, then using that debt to drive up house prices to stimulate the wealth effect is a tried and true formula and will sustain us until the next boom when it arrives.
    As an intelligent person I am sure you can see the next boom, I just hope it is not in your rear view mirror.

  57. Midway Point in Tasmania dropped in average price from 2013 to 2014, $100,000. Though to be fair it looks like the properties that have sold year to date have sold at higher prices, but many are on the market. and I read in a mainstream newspaper that “investors are nervous”. I wonder why.

  58. We had a staff meeting at work today.. Straight after, they had ‘invited’ some ANZ bank managers to discuss anz@work.. Basically spruiking personal, car and home loans and complaining about “anti-investor” laws and the “tough competition” in the housing market within the Newcastle region.

    Is this a new development — banks turning up to businesses and spruiking? I was quite shocked, to say the least.

  59. zarathustarr,

    That must be a new way for the management to make money. Every loan taken out attracts a “finder’s fee”.

  60. David C.,

    I thought that may be the case. I’m sensing a lot of desperation around at the moment. It could just be confirmation bias, but I am noticing more for sale and for lease signs in the Newcastle region — probably a symptom of the downturn in mining within the the Hunter Valley.

    I just recently moved house (renting — landlord wanted to cash out), and so I’ve been keeping a close eye on things. There seems to be quite a few rentals with many places being advertised for weeks on end complete with reductions in rent. Prior to moving, there were around 4 or 5 houses sold in our street alone within the span of 3 months.

    Just another anecdote, but possibly a sign of greater things..

  61. @zarathustarr

    Noticing the same here in Melbourne. Continual For Lease and For Sale signs, a very heavy REIV spruiking via adverts, Shock-Jocks commentary (still cash for comments is going on!) media news BS etc ad nauseum!

    But idiots only read what backs their point of view and penchant for personal greed. I swear of late I believe 99% of the staff where I work have “investment properties”. And you’ll see them ALL reading articles on Domain dot com. All of them. Some are quieter than others but they’re all involved in this ponzi scheme. I’m actually quite shocked at the extent to which this has gone. I thought 80% of idiots would be caught up but I’ve been listening to conversations about housing and you can’t turn a corner in a building of 2-3000 people without hearing someone talking about housing. FK!

    So yes, there’s heavy advertising on all sides but a contrary increase in sales and rentals. There will be the Uni student exodus soon as all our international students who are finishing degrees dump their furniture on the nature-strips and go home.

    On a brighter note: If you want a nice hot-wheels looking car that has been well looked after, search the Sale Boards in universities 🙂

  62. Shoot … I am beginning to wonder if this housing thing is ever going to take a turn. Have been reading this blog for years, still it has not materialized yet?

    We want to buy in a half decent suburb in Hobart, but even in little ol Hobart, such a house will cost you 400K+.

    Even if the gradual decline does start to take place, there are usually a handful of false collapses spanning a number of years before you get to true collapse figures.

    So with a little cash in hand what do you do, buy in, or hold off another five years?ell

  63. It really all depends on Negative Gearing and Capital Gains Tax. If there is no tax reform in this area, the Housing Ponzi will continue, albeit at lower levels.

  64. Westpac Dismisses Bubble Fears
    By Terry Ryder

    The wider Australian market has “sound fundamentals”, according to Westpac CEO Brian Hartzer. He used the bank’s annual report to dismiss claims that Australian property is over-valued. “There is no doubt housing prices are strong in some markets, but we do not subscribe to the view that we are in a bubble,” he said. “That’s because we believe the economics of Australian housing are sound. “We are seeing genuine demand for housing that has consistently exceeded supply from investors and owner-occupiers. It is only recently that we have seen an increase in building activity to help match demand.” Hartzer says there has been no easing in credit standards. “We continue to lend to those people who have the capacity to repay and the standards by which we measure that capacity have not relaxed,” he said. “In fact we tightened our lending criteria in a number of areas this year. “So, overall, we see the housing market as rational, with sound fundamentals. Of course, that does not mean we will not see stress in selected pockets.”

    Where have we heard this story before?

  66. Terry Ryder was spruiking mining towns a few years ago, now look at what has happened to people who have invested there.

  67. Gore Vidal: ‘perpetual war for perpetual profit’.Crushing economy. James O’Neill: ‘The media exists as agents of the very forces that control our industry, our financial sector, and the huge military intelligence information industries that promote the narrow interests of a tiny fraction of the population’.

  68. Jason Hirthler : “Terrorism is a sympton of a larger disease, the disease of capitalist imperialism. Every major terror attack is leveraged by the West to occupy greater segments of the Middle East and to supress free speech, organization and protest at home. One million Muslims killed, seven Muslim countries invaded and tens of millions of Muslims turned into refugees. The system cannot change because our rulers will stop at nothing to extend their grip on the worlds financial riches, its natural resources and its thoroughfares of extraction. In order to achieve these goals, they are willing to allow major urban centers of the West to become sacrifice zones. Terrorism is the sympton of imperial violence. It is how the defenseless fight back when their societes are destroyed. Syria is not about terrorism. It’s about who rules the world. Paris was collateral damage, part of the grisly cost of full-spectrum dominance”.

  69. @ 66 anyone who buys property in a resource boom area and doesnt get out at the peak is a fool. That’s not Ryders fault.

  71. Titty @ 67. You must be some kind of financial genius to be able to pick market tops, just like that. Tell us your secret.

  72. @62 Not long now.

    First test will be when (if) US attempts interest rate lift in December. I would wait until new year at least if I were you. Central bankers thought printing enough money and flooding cheap credit into the market would get economies going again. Obviously it has not worked and simply re-inflated bubbles. Plan B should see that particular neo-liberal sacred cow slaughtered but the carnage that ensues should see a flight of capital out of Oz and a concomitant fall in house pricing. Happy Christmas everyone.

  73. @56: Thanks for your quotes of simplistic, mind-numbingly stupid conspiracy theories! Got any thoughts of your own??

  74. @ 70. Bubby
    Anyone who buys property in a resources boom area and doesnt know that it will eventually go bust, is a fool. It’s like buying stocks and thinking it requires no monitoring. Timing is everything.

    Likewise, anyone who believes a spruiker like Ryder blanket fashion ,is also a fool. The link you gave is a prime example of investor laziness, as the article specifically highlights concerns about Olympic Dam. Any investor tied up with it should have taken the red flag warning he gave there and monitored it closely.

    @71 Mercury, if you’re fairly savvy and you know what to look for you can pick somewhat close to the market top. Only experience can give you that knowledge and Im not about to write a thesis on it here.

  75. Does anyone have a link to the PM’s first law, the $100m tax exemption reporting?? The link to the ATO’s site has been changed.

    And google doesn’t find it anymore either.

    MMMM…. we live in interesting times

  77. @73
    Nice response Moron.

    Can you please identify what part of what I wrote you regard as conspiracy related?

    Additionally don’t you find it ironic that a self professed “Moron” is asking if someone has any thoughts of their own while not refuting or adding anything of relevance to the conversation.

    Just asking Brains.

  78. Here you go “moron”

    http://www.propertyobserver.com.au/finding/residential-investment/suburb-spotlights/39616-karratha-cheaper-but-one-of-australia-s-most-affordable-towns.html

    http://www.sqmresearch.com.au/asking-property-prices.php?postcode=6714&t=1

    How long do you thing our offshore borrowing costs are going to hold up with record household debt and Iron ore, coal and LNG prices in the gutter bound for the sewer?

    China will not save you this time, your only hope is can kicking Canberra!

  79. 80% of OZ households are in debt. For example, my 26 year old daughters girlfriend has just purchased a 1 bedroom apartment for $810,000 with a 70k deposit. “Advance Australia FARE’. Home ownership for the youth in Sydney is not possible. In 25 years we have gone from having the most to the least affordable housing in the world. ‘Banana Republic’. Blame the banksters.

  80. Please note, in 25 years the workers wages have remained stagnant while house prices have gone up 1000%. If you borrow that is 2500% minimum. Locals cannot buy in this market.

  81. Titty,

    There are a lot of foolish people out there and we are all prone to emotions of greed an fear. The problem is that there are some nasty individuals who try and take advantage of that.

    That’s not Ryders fault.

    Why do you try your hardest and defend people who we should be ridiculing?

  82. Sorry Steve, I wasn’t referring to comment 56. I was referring to Comments 67 and 68, which were written by “56”.

  84. @82

    Leave it out ok. 56 has been giving input here for ages. A man’s angle is his opinion. He’s alright. Just leave it out.

  86. I was under the impression Domain released auction sales results around 6:00pm on the same day. Here it is after 12:30am on 29/11 and still I can’t find Sydney’s auction results from 28/11.

    Thoughts?

  87. 60 mil worth of property eh.. where did this money come from? Banks australia

    It doesn’t and won’t add up by 2017

  88. Patrick thank you. My apologies to you and everyone that I have offended in the past. Minor details aside I think we all have similar feelings about the world around us. We all want more fair lives for our children. Also Admin thank you for your good articles.

  89. @86 There you go Tony!!
    Last stats, Sydney clearance rate 56%…
    However, I’m one of the growing numbers of cynical people who don’t believe anything that is published, it’s probably lower.

  93. Thanks for the link Battered Sav. Notwithstanding the 56% clearance rate in NSW, looking at the prices of the houses that DID sell either at auction or prior to auction, especially in the suburbs that hold particular interest for me, the prices are still way too high!

    According to perceived wisdom, as soon as the clearance rate drops below 50%, we are officially in a buyers’ market, but unless prices drop significantly, immaterial of auction clearance rates – where will all the buyers come from? Nobody I know thinks there are bargains to be had out there, but a further 7% drop would tell us otherwise.

    Perhaps, finally, Australia will wake up to the horror, idiocy, and cruelty of buying a ‘home’ at auction.

  94. @93
    Agreed Rupert and apologise to all I initially read this as only Sydney clearance rates?
    However, looking at the link, in a snap shot it shows where the money is being invested ( Vic & NSW). With the decline in the clearance rate I honestly feel this will begin a Domino theory through out the country because these two markets are helping to hold the economy up. I am fortunate to be able to travel around the country and I first hand get to see the never ending, 100’s and 1000’s of high rise unit blocks being built everywhere. I’m also in Sydney and agree that prices are and will stay unaffordable for awhile, but I do believe we are heading for a deep recession (correction) and that the housing bubble is going to destroy a lot of people’s dreams. The question is: will it be a big pop or will it be like Japan and just leak slowly over many years?
    I like the big pop personally!!

  96. @ 76 Morpheous

    that’s close enough. People are gobsmacked when I show them.

    NOTE: I have to physically show them, just sending them the link isn’t enough. But they’ll click on stuff on FB all night long. Says alot about our current society.

  97. @95 Steve.

    Thanks for that link, but this is what I can’t understand, the WA economy is in deep trouble (because the arse has fallen out of the mining industry), yet people are still getting themselves into more debt?

    The Australian economy is a sick joke, our useless politicians have killed what’s left of our manufacturing industry (what should be the basis of truly strong economy), and we all have left is property speculation fueled by lots of debt.

  98. @ 97. Master Yoda

    “all have left is property speculation fueled by lots of debt.”

    What could possibly go wrong?

  99. From last month, a foreign bank is offering it’s customers ZERO – DEPOSIT HOME LOANS so they can invest in Australia. It is not on offer to Australians, only Shanghaies. Maybe explains why the dollar is heading south. My advice to young locals – get a good education and then join the CCP.

  101. @99
    Agreed any bubble would help!! I was alluding to property prices falling rapidly in a very short period of time rather than (ie: Japan), which took 15 years to return to 1985 prices. I’m not expecting we will return to 2000 prices, but I would like to be able to afford a house in the next couple of years rather than 15 years time. I’m sure you get my drift.

Comments are closed.