According to Forensic Asia Ltd.’s managing director Gillem Tulloch, the China property bubble will likely burst next year. Tulloch believes china’s banks are unable to pump out enough credit to sustain further rises in property values. He says the Chinese economy will be short 11 trillion yuan in credit required to make owning more beneficial than renting.
The Chinese government has been working in vein trying to control rampant credit lending to property speculators.
If Tulloch is correct, Australia could be one of the worst hit countries. Much of the building/property boom in China is consuming resources from Australia, causing the “1 in a 100” year mining boom.
» China property bubble to pop this year, says analyst – Market Watch, 2nd February 2011.
I read an article the other day by Terry Mcrann stating that China is not serious about reducing it’s greenhouse gas emissions. After doing the sums, it appears that China will see continued growth in it’s consumption of coal and gas.
So I do see a drop in building resource exports to China but I doubt there will be much of a drop in thermal coal or LNG.
So I don’t think the chinese housing collapse will affect us that severly.
Just my opinion.
“So I don